Title: Effects of Temperature on Population Mobility and Spread of Covid-19
Abstract: The Covid-19 outbreak has caused a global pandemic and compelled many to search for a deeper understanding of how ecological and sociological factors influence the disease's spread. Many governmental leaders have mandated social distancing and other regulations on everyday activity to stop the spread of the disease. Many studies have developed models and shown the effects of social distancing, the efficacy of masks, and the impact the ambient temperature has on the number of cases reported. Yet numbers continue to rise despite the regulations being imposed, which has led researchers to ask why, and what other factors contribute to the spread of infections? We propose that a significant cause of the recent spikes in positive cases has been the mobility of the population, most notably the returning of students in school and the drop in temperature occurring near the end of the year. This study aims to identify the effect that temperature has on the mobility of a population and the spread of Covid-19. We developed a mathematical model presenting the dynamics of positive Covid-19 cases in the state of Utah with the incorporation of social distancing, mask efficiency, and the relationship between temperature and the rate of infection. A non-linear least-squares (lsqnonlin) scheme and Equler's method are used for the numerical solution of our proposed model. Our results suggest that the temperature effect has on a population's mobility plays a significant role in the Covid-19 disease dynamics and the attempt to mitigate the spread of the disease.
Advisor: Vinodh Chellamuthu